Pumpkin spice is the ultimate fall flavor.
The global pumpkin spice market is valued at $1.25 billion.
Starbucks alone sells 20 million Pumpkin Spice Lattes every year, accounting for nearly 10% of their seasonal revenue.
"Pumpkin is not a favourite food. Children and many adults often avoid pumpkin as they do rutabagas and some root vegetables. But many of us believe we should be happier (and nicer and more giving) during the holidays and pumpkin-spice products are just one of those things — like juniper and pine and wood burning stoves and fireplaces — that can change our frame of mind."
— Kantha Shelke, Food Scientist and Spokesperson for the Institute of Food Technologists
In this post, I take a look at one of the most successful seasonal offers of the last three decades — pumpkin spice. I’ll cover the marketing, branding, economics and consumer psychology behind the trend.
Pumpkin spice is a spice blend that combines cinnamon, nutmeg, ginger and cloves. The mix is commonly used to flavor pumpkin pies and has since become a core part of fall culture across America — expanding into lattes, baked goods and lifestyle and beauty items.
Spices were one of the first items to be traded across continents.
All five ‘pumpkin’ spices originated from a tiny collection of islands in the Indonesian archipelago called the Moluccas (or Muluku in Indonesian), known during this period as the ‘Spice Islands.’
In America, this unique combination of spices quickly gained popularity as a way to flavor traditional American pumpkin pies. Food historian Dr Megan Elias says, "Most people couldn't afford those spices regularly till the 20th century, so spiced pies and cakes were holiday fare. Pumpkin is a late fall crop, so it ends up at Thanksgiving. The trend is very new but the spicing combination is very old."
Pumpkin spice only became popular in modern food and drinks trends in 2003, where Starbucks created the Pumpkin Spice Latte (PSL). The latte marked one of the earliest mainstream examples of culinary creativity in drink design with coffee chains subsequently encouraging barista experimentation and menus built around signature drinks. Experts predict that the PSL brings in Starbucks around $500 million every fall.
The drink’s pervasive popularity led to a widespread expansion into grocery, beauty and lifestyle products. Granola, cookies, candles and body creams: the scent and flavor has become popular across consumer goods. Enter the Pumpkin Spice Tax — with consumers happily paying an average of 7.4% for fall-favored variations of their everyday essentials and favorite drinks and snacks. Now fully baked into fall culture, pumpkin spice has evolved into a signature seasonal category.
TikTok, Instagram and Pinterest have massively amplified seasonal traditions, from carefully-curated Pumpkin-hued cupcakes to reels of weekend PSL runs. The inundation of fall content makes pumpkin spice and other seasonal trends feel like an inescapable part of fall.
Beyond social trends, more and more consumers are also prioritizing fun, comforting and indulgent experiences. 75% of millennials say they prefer to spend their money on experiences, from food to travel, over material possessions. While 60% of Gen Z and millennials have made impulse purchases to avoid missing out on a limited-time offer (LTO).
With 34% of consumers buying pumpkin spice items as soon as they hit the shelves, brands are competing earlier and earlier for consumers’ attention. Many brands have moved seasonal product launch dates to earlier in the fall, while others have started selling pumpkin, cinnamon and apple-flavored goods as early as August.
From fall beauty drops to pumpkin spice craft markets, seasonal launches have become tied to major business events. Many consumers enjoy following online countdowns to the release of their favorite fall products — from scented lip balms and lattes to cozy sweaters. Special tasting events, product previews and launch parties continue to add to the fall excitement, driving increasing demand for fall fragrances and flavors.
From “little treat culture” to the nostalgia inherent in seasonal scents and flavors, let's take a look at pumpkin spice consumer behavior and break down why consumers love pumpkin spice so much.
32% of Americans say fall is their favorite season, showing that many consumers have a strong emotional connection to fall.
Seasonal traditions bring a sense of comfort and wellbeing to consumers. Just like decorating Christmas trees and drinking eggnog deepen consumers’ joy during the festive season, pumpkin spice scented and flavored goods help consumers celebrate the shift to the crisp fall weather with pumpkin spice often becoming synonymous with fall for many consumers.
Scent is one of our strongest memory anchors. That’s why pumpkin spice and the cozy smells of cinnamon, nutmeg and ginger can so easily trigger feelings of nostalgia, joy and comfort.
Maraga Martens, Associate Vice President of Merchandising at Bath & Body Works says:
“Fall fragrances inspired by pumpkin and spices continue to be customer favorites and we don’t see that changing — it’s similar to how you think of the pine fragrance and Christmas."
Limited-time excitement and the exclusive sense of belonging that comes with enjoying a culturally-trending scent or flavor also adds to the spice blend’s popularity. Rhea Goel, specialist in the intersection between economics and psychology, notes, "Limited editions make customers feel special and part of an exclusive club: when a product is only available for a short period, those who manage to get their hands on it feel like they’ve joined an elite group. This offers happiness related to the purchase, making the consumer build positive associations for further consumption."
As we cover in our post on the dirty soda trend, pumpkin-spice goods often perfectly pair with millennials and Gen-Z’s “little treat culture,” which celebrates enjoying small, affordable treats like lattes, muffins and bath bombs as a reward or personal indulgence. In fact, 47% of consumers aged 18-34 say they view buying a premium coffee as a personal reward.
36% of consumers say they get impatient for fall to arrive more than any other season. For many consumers, pumpkin spice becomes a celebration of one of their favorite times of year.
Many consumers see pumpkin spice as their entrance into fall. Ordering a pumpkin spice cookie or latte often functions as an behavioral ritual that marks the end of summer — giving people full permission to move into cozy sweater mode. A latte is not just a latte — for many consumers, it marks the move into a cozier, more grounding season.
Virginia Commonwealth University neuroscientist Catherine Franssen says: “That first pumpkin spice latte can function almost like a neurological shortcut to fall: one sip and suddenly our brains are ready for sweaters, changing leaves and everything we associate with the season.”
Claudia Skowron, counsellor and consultant asks, "Why do people love fall so much? The answer lies in numerous constructs. Fall is associated with coziness. We can love all things flannel, warm, fuzzy socks, and comfort. Fall is also a time of greater stability and predictability regarding schedules. Coming off the summer months of travel, generally, we feel refreshed and rejuvenated and are eager to get back into a structured schedule."
Every year consumers sip on a pumpkin spice latte or light a pumpkin spice candle, their emotional connection and association with pumpkin spice and fall deepens — more deeply embedding the spice blend into their annual seasonal rituals.
The limited-time nature of pumpkin spice products also drives their popularity. Limited-time seasonal offers typically spark a 43% increase in urgency-driven purchases as consumers rush to buy. The scarcer something is, the more valuable it seems. Seasonal availability gives LTO products like pumpkin spice a “special,” rarer feel than other products.
"There is something especially powerful about the fact that pumpkin spice is temporary. We know it won’t be available forever, which can make it feel more special and rewarding when it returns. Scarcity matters, but so does anticipation."
— Madeline Reinsel, VCU News
Brands regularly build anticipation early and emphasize the limited-edition, seasonal nature of consumers favorite pumpkin spice products: building excitement before launch and keeping up momentum throughout the fall season.
Let’s take a look at the brand positioning, visual identity, messaging and community building behind the pumpkin spice trend.
Many brands position their pumpkin-spice-based products as the choice for celebrating the arrival of fall. In an analysis of trend and sentiment surrounding pumpkin spice, Montclair State University found that Starbucks was essential to popularizing and reinforcing the pumpkin spice narrative across socials, with the brand presenting it as the ultimate fall treat — a signifier of the shifting seasons.
Source: Marketing Purks
Seasonal exclusivity is another key element of Stackbucks’ pumpkin spice brand positioning. Seasonal posts, like Starbucks’ pumpkin spice latte posts, typically generate up to 493% more likes per post compared to standard brand content. Starbucks has become synonymous with fall by repositioning autumn as pumpkin spice season. This claim to fall has led to the chain commanding over half of online engagement and conversation surrounding pumpkin spice lattes — compared to just 4% for the chain’s rival Dunkin’.
"What Starbucks achieved with the Pumpkin Spice Latte is any product innovation team’s dream: create something that is so successful it becomes a part of the cultural conversation for years to come."
Brands frequently tap into the cozy, nostalgic feelings connected to pumpkin spice. Emotion-based and nostalgic-centered brand positioning shows up across brands. Yankee Candle regularly creates a cozy ambiance and nostalgic feeling across content for their Spiced Pumpkin candle and other seasonal favorites.
Anticipation is a big theme, with pumpkin spice scented and flavored goods often anticipating the best in fall traditions. Starbucks regularly uses “tease marketing” to ramp up consumers’ excitement, including count-downs, online scavenger hunts and autumnal emojis. Trader Joe’s regularly positions their fall product launches as a treasure hunt, inviting shoppers to find and collect their new fall launches across the store.
Taking a look at CPG seasonal trends, pumpkin spice’s visual identity leans heavily into the iconic colors of fall with brands frequently rotating autumnal color palettes featuring orange, brown and other earth tones. Autumn and harvest imagery is also popular across brands. With brands regularly emphasizing the nostalgic, cozy feelings the spice mix embodies with imagery of pumpkins, red and burnt-orange colored leaves and knitted sweaters.
Seasonal packaging refreshes are also a popular part of brands’ seasonal product strategy. Brands regularly unveil autumnal-hued packaging, featuring nutmeg and cinnamon cloves and other autumnal mainstays across their bags, bottles and boxes. M&M’s unveiled burnt orange packaging with slices of pumpkin pie on the cover for their limited-edition Pumpkin Pie flavor, while Pop-Tart’s Pumpkin Pie pastries featuring fall leaves and pie across their boxes.
Warm café photography is also popular across social content and creative.
Coffee shops and food and bev brands frequently show their products in a cozy cafe setting; hazy, ambient lighting, steamy lattes and coffee mugs and windows adorned with paper leaves feature across brands’ seasonal campaigns.
Familiarity, comfort, tradition: brands regularly tap into seasonal nostalgia, with messaging highlighting that consumers’ pumpkin spice faves are back on coffee shop, bakery and grocery store shelves. Brands invite fans to celebrate and step into the season with their products — positioning them as the perfect way to indulge in autumnal coziness.
As Krispy Kreme announces the return of their pumpkin-spice flavored treats on their website, "Fall has arrived at Krispy Kreme! Pumpkin Spice is back, joined by the fan-favorite Biscoff® Cookie Butter Doughnut, as part of our Autumn Seasonal Collection. Sip into the season with the familiar fall favorite Pumpkin Spice Latte or a cozy new Apple Crisp Latte, topped with caramel drizzle and graham crumble. Stop by your local shop or order online to get your first Pumpkin Spice fix of the season!”
Source: Krispy Kreme
Across their packaging and marketing, brands frequently highlight the limited-edition nature of their products — nudging consumers to purchase while they can or miss out. Copy like “Limited-edition flavor, seasonal offering and limited batch,” are scrawled across boxes, tubs and bags in the grocery store.
Brands also regularly highlight cozy fall moments and traditions across their messaging — often layering sensory marketing on top of sensory marketing, with an emphasis on warm sweaters and scarves and cozy moments backed by the comforting scents of clove, ginger, cinnamon and nutmeg.
On their website, Lush talk up their Pumpkin Spice body spray, noting that it, "Pairs perfectly with an oversized scarf and a trip to the pumpkin patch — meet your new fall favourite. Sweet and spicy clove and ginger invite you to curl up in the golden warmth of carob resin and carrot seed oil, bringing you a dose of fall magic, nostalgia and compliments in every spritz."
The #pumkinspice is attached to over 2.07 million Instagram posts, showing its unwavering popularity across the socials, despite some consumers assigning it “basic” status.
Brands like Starbucks use consumer sentiment analysis and social listening to build effective campaigns and appeal to their target market. In a recent social media campaign, the brand has playfully indulged in the pushback against pumpkin spice, inviting all “basic” pumpkin-spice-loving consumers to pick up their favorite lattes come fall.
Brands often use social media countdowns to build up momentum and excitement for their limited-edition pumpkin spice products. Often starting the clock in the summer months, brands often flood the socials with teasers, memes and fall-themed dates before they unveil new pumpkin spice products or bring back seasonal favorites for the year.
Brands often create a stronger sense of exclusivity with user-generated seasonal content, inviting customers to share snaps of their first PSL of the season or share their favorite fall traditions including a brand’s products. Other brands invite consumers to repost official brand posts for their chance to win pumpkin spice goodies, improving brand reach.
Many brands track online trends and use popular fall content to create community and connect with consumers. TikTok’s Booktok craze frequently includes fall and pumpkin spice inspired reads like The Secret History by Donna Tartt, Autumn by Ali Smith, and The Pumpkin Spice Cafe by Laurie Gilmore. Brands regularly feature their pumpkin spice products alongside trending literary faves, with content like book-and-drink-based starter packs and D.O.B (drink, outfit, book) content — making them feel like essential necessities of the fall season.
Source: Madzmarkedpages’ Instagram page
Partnerships with seasonal creators and lifestyle influencers are also a popular way to promote seasonal products. 86% of consumers made a purchase inspired by an influencer in the last year. Backed by hashtags like #PSLSeason, Starbucks regularly partners with micro-influencers, sending custom merch and inviting them to share their "first sip of the season" with followers when they buy their first Pumpkin Spice Latte of the fall.
From pricing strategies to typical business models, let’s explore the economics of pumpkin spice.
Brands regularly command premium pricing for familiar, affordable ingredients. Many pumpkin spice products boast high margins, such as candle waxes and coffee and milk bases for PSLs, yet consumers are still happy to pay more for the pumpkin spice’s exclusive fall connection. This curated seasonal scarcity gives companies’ limited-edition, premium pricing power.
39% of consumers say they prefer seasonal versions of their favorite products, with over 40% of millennials and Gen Z consumers willing to pay a premium. While 43% say that pumpkin spice makes a product seem more exclusive.
From Oreo to M&M’s, hundreds of brands offer seasonal product extensions to meet consumer demand for seasonal scents and flavors and drive short-term sales throughout the fall quarter. With one in three shoppers buying pumpkin spice products as soon they become available, brands that launch their seasonal variations early are often best positioned to capitalize on consumers' excitement around fall.
Bundling opportunities are also an effective way coffee shops and bakeries drive up average order values. Exclusive fall combos, such as a pumpkin spice muffin and latte, are a popular way to increase revenue throughout the fall.
On average, consumers spend $32 per month on pumpkin spice-flavored items during fall, with millennials spending $64 per month — the highest spend of any generation. What this means for businesses is predictable annual demand. If a business has a best-selling pumpkin spice product, they know demand will likely remain high for it the following year — with many consumers becoming repeat buyers. Consumers regularly return year after year to buy their pumpkin spice-inspired faves at Bath & Body Works, including Pumpkin Pecan Waffles, Marshmallow Pumpkin Latte and Pumpkin Bonfire.
The popularity of the spice blend also encourages experimentation and cross-category product expansion. Coffee, candy, body butter: most pumpkin spice products can be easily tweaked to offer a new, more exclusive flavor or scent profile while keeping the base of the product the same. This means low product development costs alongside high incremental seasonal revenue potential.
As we’ve seen, consumers happily pay a premium for pumpkin spice products. One of the biggest reasons for this is the celebratory nature of a pumpkin spice. The first latte of the season, or the cozifying-effect of a pumpkin spice candle burning in the living room, deepens consumers’ connection to fall and helps them enjoy it more. The value of most pumpkin spice products are not in their taste or scent, but in their ability to make fall feel cozier and more enjoyable.
Limited availability also creates urgency. Consumers know these products won’t be available all year round, pushing them to purchase more of them while they can — 38% of consumers are more likely to buy food or grocery products labeled as limited edition.
For many consumers, purchasing pumpkin spice products has become a core part of their fall rituals. Purchases are born out of nostalgia and habit, with consumers showing strong brand loyalty to their favorite pumpkin spice brands year after year.
But for many consumers, the enjoyment of pumpkin spice products also goes beyond celebrating fall rituals — making them feel part of a collective cultural moment and allowing them to cultivate their social identities and “in-group” status through consumption. Independent writer Emma Clarke says, "Although I personally have only experienced the PSL in recent years, for many it is sort of the unofficial uniform of autumn; a beloved act to be cherished.”
"For me, “little treat” strategizing starts early in the work day. My morning to-do list transforms into a mental obstacle course, with a glittering, $8 iced vanilla latte waiting at the finish line. Sure, I have a perfectly good coffee machine at home, and another one staring me down from the office kitchenette. But while there may be simpler, cheaper ways to get my midday caffeine hit, that’s not really the point. I’m after the ritual of removing myself from a mundane environment or task, engaging with the scenery and smells of a buzzing café, and indulging in something that feels special.
As my TikTok and Instagram feeds remind me every day, my experience is not unique, with droves of users attesting that they, too, have to bribe themselves with small delights to conquer basic responsibilities of adulthood—laundry, doctor’s appointments, overflowing inboxes." Grace McCarty, Self
Pumpkin spice drinks and baked goods also help consumers enjoy a more premium café experience. From barista-made coffees to finding a cozy nook in a chic café, spending on this type of experience perfectly aligns with Gen Z and millennials, “little treat culture,” giving them access to an affordable treat-yourself luxury on a limited budget.
Here’s how to advertise your pumpkin spice products to fall-loving consumers.
Countdown campaigns are one of the most effective ways to build anticipation for pumpkin spice products and capture the attention of early seasonal buyers. 63% of online shoppers say that countdown timers on pages showcasing limited-edition products increase the likelihood that they'll buy a product. Pair countdowns with first-day launch announcements to turn your product launches into highly anticipated brand events.
Think #fallvibes and #sweaterweather, fall aesthetic content is a great way to tap into consumers' love of fall and make your products feel like an essential part of their fall rituals. Send merch to micro influencers with high levels of follower trust. Influencer unboxings offer high engagement and directly influence buying behavior, with 52% of consumers making a purchase after watching an unboxing.
From first sip videos to videos showing how your products fit into consumers’ fall routines, build your campaigns around incentivized user generated content. Consumer reaction videos are a great way to build trust with your audience and genuine excitement around your products with 92% of consumers trusting peer recommendations over brand recommendations.
"If you’ve spent more than five minutes on social media in the past few years, just like me, you’ve probably seen foodie content that made you stop in your tracks mid-scroll and go: “Wait… WHAT?” Welcome to the enchanting, baffling, and occasionally downright genius world of viral TikTok recipes."
Social conversations around seasonal food are increasing by 44.34% year-over-year. Each week, millions of consumers search, save, share and comment on online video recipes. Seasonal recipes are a great way to reach more consumers and inspire them with fun, creative and delicious ways to use your edible pumpkin spice products. The recipes that go viral the most tend to be quick, aesthetically pleasing, made from minimal ingredients and rely on simple hacks that anyone can do.
Long-term partnerships with lifestyle influencers can help bring your product to a wider audience and build brand trust with influencers’ most-engaged followers.
Here are some of the best creators to consider for promoting your pumpkin spice products:
Food creators: These creators are a natural pairing if you’re looking to bring your pumpkin spice to new audiences and drive sales. From homemade lattes to brownies, work with creators to develop unique recipes that incorporate your product.
Family content creators: From pie mix to cookies, many pumpkin spice products are a great option for families’ fall rituals. Family content creators often have a strong following and high levels of consumer trust, making them a great partner if you want to appeal to consumers with children.
Home décor creators: An ideal creator to partner with if you sell products like candles, air fresheners or incense. This type of creator can show consumers how your product can be used to create the perfect fall ambiance.
Fashion and lifestyle influencers: Get Ready With Me videos, shopping vlogs or coffee runs directly show consumers how pumpkin spice products are a natural part of many creators’ fall rituals, deepening collective nostalgia and excitement and inspiring consumers to bring these products into their own autumn rituals.
By staking their claim to both fall and the pumpkin spice latte, Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Lattes have successfully become synonymous with fall.
In 2014 — at the height of the millennial pumpkin spice craze, the Pumpkin Spice Latte was personified with its own Twitter account — @TheRealPSL, rolling out witty tweets on Netflix fall favorite Gilmore Girls, whether or not to take PSL to the Homecoming dance and handing out dating advice — racking up thousands of followers.
Source: Pumpkin Spice Latte’s X profile
Starbucks further strengthened its seasonal positioning and ownership of all things pumpkin spice by launching PSL limited-edition merch each year including sweaters, mugs and tumblers. They’ve continued to create excitement and drive consumer demand during Pumpkin Spice season with an expansion into a more elaborate fall menu, including iced pumpkin cream espressos, chais, matchas and muffins.
Trader Joe’s official fall drop has also become a cult favorite by launching all their pumpkin spice and fall products on the same date. As limited-edition items in limited supply, the launch creates urgency and scarcity among consumers. Each year’s launch regularly inspires thousands of pieces of user generated content like videos hauls and product rankings across Facebook, Instagram and TikTok.
Create urgency and scarcity with limited-edition seasonal creations and offers. Keep proven seasonal customer favorites and experiment with creative twists on menu classics to make your menu feel both fresh and comforting to your customer base.
If you’re a retailer, spotlight products with seasonal end-cap displays. Pair different seasonal product lines with other seasonal product lines and fall decor to build excitement for fall and encourage impulse buys. If seasonal ingredients’ success is primarily driven by ritual then show consumers how they can use and incorporate your products into their weekly and daily fall routines with interactive displays and trained staff showing consumers how they can use your products to create recipes like elaborate coffee pairings and autumn breakfast bowls.
Don’t forget digital. 59% of consumers say they prefer to use mobile apps to access rewards. Set up promotions and rewards for mobile orders to encourage purchases with loyalty app exclusives. Encourage app downloads and sign-ups by offering members-only early access.
Here are some of the main takeaways brands and markets can take away from the pumpkin spice trend.
The widespread popularity of pumpkin spice shows that seasonal LTOs are some of the most effective ways to increase short-term sales and build a sense of scarcity and urgency among consumers, with emotional drivers often outperforming function benefits.
Seasonal packaging refreshes also reinforce seasonal excitement and bring an added sense of collectability to fall lines, with 18% of consumers collecting limited-edition or seasonal items just to collect packaging — showing that your packaging can matter almost as much as your product.
The pumpkin spice trend also shows how risk-taking experimentation with popular fall flavors in unexpected ways can help to successfully build brand awareness. In the fall of 2020, Pumpkin Spice Kraft Dinner Mac & Cheese went viral after the brand used the popular flavor profile to create a divisive limited-edition Mac & Cheese.
With only 1,000 kits in circulation, over 30,000 people signed up to try the ready meal in the 48 hours after the Canadian launch. The brand quickly followed up with an American launch, giving Americans the chance to try the product via a Twitter/X sweepstake. The launch inspired thousands of memes, taste test videos and debates online.
The success of pumpkin spice shows that unusual or unexpected flavor profiles can go on to perform well if you create strong seasonal and emotional ties for consumers. The Pumpkin Spice Latte was originally created in Starbucks' “Liquid Lab,” by chefs and food scientists. It originally did poorly in initial consumer tests gauging customer interest in purchasing the latte — being outperformed by chocolate and caramel, but it scored highly in terms of uniqueness.
"This idea of pumpkin was rated as unique. What you need to keep in mind is that we're going back to 2003. The only thing pumpkin you would find in the marketplace was the pumpkin puree cans in the grocery store that people would use to make pumpkin pies."
— Peter Dukes, Director of Global Growth and Concepts, Starbucks
The latte only became successful in consumer tests when placed in the right seasonal context. The team later tested the latte in fall-decorated labs along with the name Pumpkin Spice Latte — seeing a huge spike in consumer interest.
Starbucks’ original Pumpkin Spice Latte has gone on to provide an effective foundation for annual innovation. The 2003 wildcard has led to the development of pumpkin cold brews and cream chai variations on the annual fall Starbucks menu. They’ve also released several bakery items and at-home grocery products like iced coffee and creamers — showing how a single popular product can provide the groundwork for annual innovation.
Another one of the biggest lessons for QSR brands from the pumpkin spice trend is how effective limited-time offers can be when they become annual brand events. Consumers regularly look forward to widely-promoted launch days and attend seasonal events like product launches, so be sure to incorporate brand events into your QSR seasonal marketing strategy.
The success of pumpkin spice also demonstrates that predictable seasonal launches drive repeat visits and bring in predictive revenue growth each year. As one of the most effective ways to secure consumer loyalty and increase short-term sales throughout the fall season, you can upgrade your menu by making sure it features limited-edition seasonal treats every year.
As we’ve seen, one in three consumers buy their pumpkin spice products early in the autumn season. Provide early access through loyalty programs to reward engaged customers and strengthen your relationship with them as soon as the season begins.
Pumpkin spice also shows us how seasonal products create opportunities for menu innovation without long-term complexity. Thanks to popular seasonal ingredients like pumpkin spice, salted caramel and cinnamon, building creative and innovative new menu items around fall favorites offer a high probability of success with low R&D costs — allowing for more cost-effective innovation with higher potential success rates.
Pumpkin spice offers several lessons for marketers. One of the biggest ones is the importance of teasing out product launches and building anticipation before a product becomes available. Tease marketing is a core part of many brands’ successful seasonal launches, with mystery emojis, countdown timers and ingredient and product photography helping to create excitement before launch.
The best pumpkin spice marketing also shows that scarcity works — but only when consumers know the product will return next year. By pairing both scarcity with predictability, consumers get the opportunity to make an ongoing emotional connection with a product — taking products like pumpkin spice from fleeting seasonal treat to yearly fall tradition.
As Kelsey and I cover in our past for Zappi, on whether brands should appeal to emotions in advertising, 31% of the most successful ads appeal to consumers’ emotions, compared to just 16% of ads that focus on rational motivations. For many products, especially seasonal products — the key drivers impacting consumers’ buying behavior are emotional rather than practical or functional. Test seasonal messaging to identify which emotional triggers resonate most and test your early-stage creative to assess how effective it is at eliciting specific emotions.
As demonstrated by brands like Bath & Body Works and Starbucks, your best-performing products provide the foundation for product and campaign innovation — allowing you to experiment and test out different variations across product categories and channels.
Also look beyond short-term seasonal sales — Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte has successfully created a halo effect that improves brand equity throughout the year, highlighting the importance of measuring long-term brand equity, not just short-term seasonal sales.
Over the next few years, I predict we’ll see longer strict seasonal marketing calendars as brands compete for early habitual buyers who look to buy seasonal products in late summer or the earliest days of fall. We’ve already started to see this with pumpkin spice pioneers like Starbucks, who launched their full pumpkin spice range on August the 25th of this year.
Ilana Orlofsky, senior manager of customer experience at the beverage development company Imbibe says early launches are responding to the rise in, “Comfort rushing,” consumers’ rush for cozy autumn staples earlier and earlier in the year.
We’ll also see greater competition from emerging seasonal flavors with some potentially outselling pumpkin spice. 39% of Americans rank cinnamon as their favorite fall flavor, while 37% say salted caramel is their go-to autumnal choice. Pecan is another contender for fall’s favorite flavor — growing 28% year-over year in DoorDash orders throughout 2025. Other profiles that will flavor and scent our lattes, baked goods and bath and beauty products include maple, apple cider, chai, toasted marshmallow, candy apple and hot honey. Along with pumpkin spice, these fall flavor essences will continue to expand into new product categories beyond traditional food and beverages.
Sustainability will also become a bigger part of seasonal storytelling as consumers continue to prioritize and push for more eco-friendly products and business practices across festive and seasonal goods. Despite increasing costs of living, consumers still report that they’re happy to pay up to 9.7% more for sustainable products, meaning many brands will look to spotlight sustainability in their fall marketing campaigns.
With a growing backlash from consumers on the use of Gen AI to create menu images of foods, Hunter Lewis, editor in chief of Food and Wine magazine, emphasizes that AI's growth and cost-saving impact should be strictly limited to back-end operations — stating that the use of the technology should remain invisible to avoid putting off customers. One of the growing benefits of AI is its ability to deliver effective personalization, allowing brands to create more targeted seasonal marketing promotions by using software to track local seasonal trends, buying behavior and weather patterns.
Ultimately, there are many trends and opportunities for brands keep in mind as they continue to innovate! But what's key is to always keep the consumer in the loop to keep up with these shifts.
For more on how to successfully land seasonal innovation, check out our guide below.